Are Markets Reading Too Much Into President Trump?

Are Markets Reading Too Much Into President Trump?

James Mackintosh at the Wall Street Journal has an important column up that I want to send you over to. In this quick snippet, he makes the same point I madedirectly on the heels of the election – that markets were poised to rally no matter who won, and it was the uncertainty of the election itself going away that spurred the burst of buying:

The danger is that investors are responding to their own prejudices, then receiving reinforcement from one another. While the market is internally consistent, that isn’t enough if it has misjudged the big picture—as it often does on the economy, and even more so on presidents.

The moves since Election Day are big, but in reality are just the acceleration of a trend that already was under way. The market noticed the scent of growth in the summer, and had been slowly switching away from bearish bets since the time Americans went to vote.

In other words, the move was already afoot, the election going well (relatively speaking) just served as the lighter fluid being squirted on the sire (pyre?).

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